Although their interests often diverge, authors and publishers aren’t all that different. For starters, both camps must make choices. Established authors often pass on firm offers (more on that below). For their part, publishing houses don’t greenlight every conceivable book. Adding to the complexity, perfect information eludes all of us.

As a result, the publishing landscape is littered with both:

• Can’t-miss titles that did. Many recent celebrity memoirs fall into this bucket.
• Unexpected, breakout hits.

In the end, every book is a judgment call. Ideally, authors and publishers alike learn how to call balls and strikes better over time. In this way, books resemble movies, TV shows, tech products, and just about every new thing.

Declining an Offer

A while back, I wrote a post about how I politely declined an offer to write a new For Dummies book. My decision didn’t sway the series’ enthusiastic acquisitions editor, and that title recently dropped. I was understandably curious about its initial performance.

An early review of the physical book criticizes the quality of its images.

Based on the book’s opening day Amazon sales rank, it appears that my instincts about its limited commercial viability were spot-on. If there were more than 200 pre-orders for it, I’ll eat my hat. Plus, an early review of the physical book criticizes the quality of its images. Here’s one of the title’s confounding visuals:

In a word, ouch. The next one isn’t much better:

The font below each phone is downright minuscule.

Quality Control

Next, there’s the paper issue—identical to the maddening one that plagued Slack For Dummies. The sole Amazon review describes it:

If all that weren’t enough, software vendors are now offering free monthly guides on how to use the most updated versions of their wares. I’d be astonished if other vendors haven’t joined Google in giving away their own free ebooks to encourage adoption.

Brand Apathy

Finally, there’s the publisher’s repeated unwillingness to effectively police its own brand. (Apathy?) Check out some AI-related For Dummies knockoffs on GoodReads:

Will clear forgeries and inevitable AI knockoffs cannibalize sales? I’m not sure here, but they certainly don’t help. Ask Kara Swisher about it someday.

The Myth of One

What You Need to Know

Ideally, author judgment is like fine wine. If you pass on an offer from a traditional publisher to write a book, take a look at its performance to ascertain if you made the right decision. Your improved spidey sense will benefit you the next time you evaluate your next potential book project.